Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation

Abstract Several safe boundaries of critical Earth system processes have already been crossed due to human perturbations; not accounting for their interactions may further narrow the operating space humanity. Using expert knowledge elicitation, we explored among seven variables representing relevant food production, identifying many little in literature. We found that green water and land change affect other strongly, while land, freshwater ocean components biosphere integrity are most impacted by processes, notably blue biogeochemical flows. also mapped a complex network mechanisms mediating these created future research prioritization scheme based on interaction strengths existing gaps. Our study improves understanding interactions, with sustainability implications including improved modelling more explicit biophysical limits production.